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<rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"><channel><title>Todd Kirk on The Expert Index</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk</link><description>Todd Kirk is Founder and Managing Director of Middlegame Marketing Sciences, where the focus is helping organizations move beyond retrospective reporting to forward-looking growth. Todd has led the development of multi-million dollar analytical solutions at IRI and MMA, and is Co-Founder and Lead Architect at Provalytics. Todd received the ANA Genius Award for Marketing Analytics Innovation.</description><language>en</language><lastBuildDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2026 18:04:05 +0000</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/feed.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><item><title>Retail media needs system-level measurement, not siloed ROAS</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/retail-media-needs-system-level-measurement-not-siloed-roas</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/retail-media-needs-system-level-measurement-not-siloed-roas</guid><pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2026 18:04:05 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Retail media should be measured as one node in an interconnected media system, because siloed ROAS overstates demand it harvested and ignores demand it created elsewhere. Todd argues that siloed ROAS misleads brands on retail media, which both claims credit for demand built by upper-funnel channels and goes uncredited for lifting search and DTC traffic. He recommends joint multi-stage models, modeled channel interactions, and geo-lift tests.</description></item><item><title>New data sources matter only if they improve commercial decisions</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/new-data-sources-matter-only-if-they-improve-commercial-decisions</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/new-data-sources-matter-only-if-they-improve-commercial-decisions</guid><pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 2026 15:55:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>A new customer data source only has value when it helps answer better commercial questions, not when it adds another dashboard or report. Todd argues that the buzz around Meta&#x27;s Seller app misses the point. New platforms should be treated as customer signals that feed a decision support system, validating which investments drive immediate incrementality and longer-term organic growth, rather than as more reporting.</description></item><item><title>Marketing success is many customer responses, not one metric</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketing-success-is-many-customer-responses-not-one-metric</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketing-success-is-many-customer-responses-not-one-metric</guid><pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2026 14:14:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Measuring marketing means understanding how many different customer responses work together to drive incremental growth, rather than optimizing for whichever single signal is loudest. Todd argues that the IAB&#x27;s updated podcast measurement guidelines reflect a wider shift away from single-metric success. Measurement should capture how multiple investments, customer responses, and business outcomes interact, rather than simply counting events like downloads or clicks.</description></item><item><title>Measure customer response, not channel performance</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/measure-customer-response-not-channel-performance</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/measure-customer-response-not-channel-performance</guid><pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2026 15:56:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Marketing measurement should shift from asking which channel worked to asking how combined investments produced the customer responses that drove business outcomes. Todd argues that the brand versus performance debate is really investments versus customers. Channels, price, distribution and promotions interact along the buying journey, so AI should help optimize them as one connected system rather than speed up media optimization alone.</description></item><item><title>Unused loyalty rewards can signal fading engagement</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/unused-loyalty-rewards-can-signal-fading-engagement</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/unused-loyalty-rewards-can-signal-fading-engagement</guid><pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 13:25:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Unused loyalty rewards are often an early sign that customers have stopped paying attention, so teams should study the whole system of responses rather than single metrics. Todd argues that unused rewards are often read as customers saving points, when they more often signal fading engagement. He says marketing creates interconnected customer responses and outcomes, so understanding the system beats optimizing any single metric.</description></item><item><title>Marketing analytics should predict across the whole system</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketing-analytics-should-predict-across-the-whole-system</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketing-analytics-should-predict-across-the-whole-system</guid><pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2026 14:54:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Predictive marketing metrics only pay off when they model how every channel, campaign, audience and creative interact, rather than optimizing a single KPI in isolation. Todd argues that dashboards report what happened instead of guiding decisions. Predictive metrics like Google&#x27;s are a step forward, but they must work at the level of investment choices and model interactions across the whole marketing portfolio to guide budget allocation.</description></item><item><title>Marketing measurement shouldn&#x27;t rest on a single metric</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketing-measurement-shouldnt-rest-on-a-single-metric</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketing-measurement-shouldnt-rest-on-a-single-metric</guid><pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2026 14:44:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Every marketing investment triggers several customer responses, so measuring only one, like clicks, misses how each contributes differently to business outcomes. Todd argues that most measurement systems optimize for a single customer response, even though marketing produces many. He presents Agile Insights Modeling as a middle-out approach between top-down MMM and bottom-up MTA, separating incremental response from organic demand.</description></item><item><title>Evaluate new channels by their effect on the whole system</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/evaluate-new-channels-by-their-effect-on-the-whole-system</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/evaluate-new-channels-by-their-effect-on-the-whole-system</guid><pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2026 13:41:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>A new media channel should be judged by how it changes the performance of the entire marketing mix, not by standalone ROI, CPM, or reach. Todd argues that the &quot;in-game advertising versus CTV&quot; debate frames the choice wrongly. A new channel can amplify, complement, or cannibalize existing ones, so marketers should ask which combination of investments produces the greatest incremental business outcome.</description></item><item><title>No single channel answers the K-shaped advertising economy</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/no-single-channel-answers-the-k-shaped-advertising-economy</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/no-single-channel-answers-the-k-shaped-advertising-economy</guid><pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2026 13:38:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Fragmented customer behavior means no single channel wins, so marketing measurement must explain how different customer segments respond instead of relying on averages. Todd argues the K-shaped economy shows there is no one winning channel, not that Connected TV is the answer. Models that average responses across diverse customer segments mislead, so measurement should treat investments, customer responses, and outcomes as one system.</description></item><item><title>Averaged marketing metrics hide diverging customer behavior</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/averaged-marketing-metrics-hide-diverging-customer-behavior</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/averaged-marketing-metrics-hide-diverging-customer-behavior</guid><pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2026 13:22:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>When customer segments move in opposite directions, a single average elasticity, lift, or ROAS hides what is happening and misleads measurement models. Todd uses a MediaPost piece on the K-shaped ad economy to argue that marketing measurement leans too heavily on averages. Segments respond to price, merchandising, assortment and media differently, so models should capture that variation instead of compressing it.</description></item><item><title>Understand the whole commercial system, not just marketing</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/understand-the-whole-commercial-system-not-just-marketing</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/understand-the-whole-commercial-system-not-just-marketing</guid><pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2026 21:34:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Better commercial decisions come from separating incrementality from organic customer response across the whole commercial system, rather than optimizing one marketing lever at a time. Todd argues that CMOs must move from measuring individual marketing activities to understanding the full commercial system. Models should cover multiple investments, responses, and outcomes together, and separate truly incremental sales from demand that would have happened or merely shifted.</description></item><item><title>Bad predictions usually come from bad data systems, not models</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/bad-predictions-usually-come-from-bad-data-systems-not-models</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/bad-predictions-usually-come-from-bad-data-systems-not-models</guid><pubDate>Mon, 29 Jun 2026 17:08:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Before replacing a predictive model, check whether it is accurately reflecting a flawed system of inconsistent definitions, stale data and weak governance that produced its inputs. Todd argues that analysts too quickly blame predictive models when the real fault lies upstream. Inconsistent definitions, broken processes, stale data and weak governance compound over time, so fixing the surrounding data system should come before replacing the model.</description></item><item><title>Marketing should be measured as a system, not by channel</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketing-should-be-measured-as-a-system-not-by-channel</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketing-should-be-measured-as-a-system-not-by-channel</guid><pubDate>Fri, 26 Jun 2026 13:22:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Marketing investments influence several customer decisions and business outcomes at once, so measuring each channel separately misses how they reinforce or compete with one another. Todd uses Walmart&#x27;s acquisition of Vibe to argue that media, commerce and analytics are merging into one system. He says modeling all investments together, rather than channel by channel, shows which ones amplify others and which add little incremental value.</description></item><item><title>Retail media data reveals the whole marketing growth system</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/retail-media-data-reveals-the-whole-marketing-growth-system</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/retail-media-data-reveals-the-whole-marketing-growth-system</guid><pubDate>Wed, 24 Jun 2026 22:14:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Retail media data is most valuable not for sharper targeting but for revealing how marketing investments, shopper behavior, and financial outcomes connect as one system. Todd argues that retail media data should ground marketing decisions in observed shopper behavior, not demographic assumptions. Its real value is showing how content, media, promotions, and merchandising interact, so brands stop optimizing channels in isolation.</description></item><item><title>Retail media needs system-level measurement, not channel metrics</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/retail-media-needs-system-level-measurement-not-channel-metrics</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/retail-media-needs-system-level-measurement-not-channel-metrics</guid><pubDate>Fri, 19 Jun 2026 14:33:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Retail media should be judged by how it interacts with other marketing investments to create incremental demand, not by channel-level metrics like clicks and ROAS. Todd argues that brands evaluating retail media in isolation miss which spend creates true incrementality. Using a modeling approach across TV, retail media, digital, social and promotions during the World Cup, an online retailer found some placements amplified other channels while others shifted existing demand.</description></item><item><title>Use World Cup search data to adapt engagement continuously</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/use-world-cup-search-data-to-adapt-engagement-continuously</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/use-world-cup-search-data-to-adapt-engagement-continuously</guid><pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2026 16:13:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>World Cup search surges are best used as a continuous source of real-time data for adapting engagement strategy, not as a cue for one-time ad blitzes. Todd argues that brands treat the World Cup as an isolated promotional moment when search data could guide real-time adjustments. He says continuous use of emerging search trends keeps audiences engaged beyond the event, even for brands that are not FIFA sponsors.</description></item><item><title>AI transformation is about the system, not the tool</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-transformation-is-about-the-system-not-the-tool</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-transformation-is-about-the-system-not-the-tool</guid><pubDate>Sun, 14 Jun 2026 17:33:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Companies should evaluate AI by the whole decision system it operates within, because isolated AI tools produce local optimization and little enterprise value. Todd draws on Melissa Reeves&#x27;s book to argue that AI should be assessed at the level of the system, not one use case at a time. Disconnected tools yield &quot;random acts of AI,&quot; so organizations need to model, measure, and adapt the whole system.</description></item><item><title>Impressions and attention both need incrementality as the test</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/impressions-and-attention-both-need-incrementality-as-the-test</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/impressions-and-attention-both-need-incrementality-as-the-test</guid><pubDate>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 13:12:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Impressions and attention are parts of one growth engine, and the only real test of either is whether the spend profitably generates incremental results. Todd argues that impressions and attention are not rival metrics. Impressions create the opportunity for engagement and attention raises the odds of action, so both should sit in one predictive framework judged by whether spend produces incremental growth.</description></item><item><title>Traditional metrics miss how AI is reshaping purchase paths</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/traditional-metrics-miss-how-ai-is-reshaping-purchase-paths</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/traditional-metrics-miss-how-ai-is-reshaping-purchase-paths</guid><pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 13:35:05 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Marketers who rely only on traditional metrics will miss how AI-driven shifts in customer behavior change purchase paths, so they need AI-powered measurement of true business impact. Todd argues that AI in retail, such as Walmart&#x27;s real-time recommendations, creates complex cross-channel interactions that traditional measurement overlooks. He recommends AI-powered approaches like Provalytics&#x27; Agile Impact Modeling to connect marketing, customer behavior, and financial results.</description></item><item><title>AI advertising reveals demand as an interconnected system</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-advertising-reveals-demand-as-an-interconnected-system</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-advertising-reveals-demand-as-an-interconnected-system</guid><pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 13:45:05 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>AI-powered advertising matters most because it exposes how marketing variables influence one another, helping marketers think in systems instead of optimizing isolated tactics. Todd argues that brand managers who stick to traditional campaigns miss how demand works as a network of variables that affect each other. Adaptive AI advertising surfaces those feedback loops and supports continuous learning over one-variable-at-a-time seasonal optimization.</description></item><item><title>Conversions, not views, drive growth from video advertising</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/conversions-not-views-drive-growth-from-video-advertising</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/conversions-not-views-drive-growth-from-video-advertising</guid><pubDate>Fri, 05 Jun 2026 14:27:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Video views show reach but not created demand, so marketers should optimize for conversions and for relevance to audience intent rather than for viewership. Todd argues that high view counts can look impressive while contributing little to revenue. In a CPG measurement update, optimizing for conversions instead of impressions showed that more relevant, lower-view videos produced more purchase actions than widely viewed ones.</description></item><item><title>Delaying agency payments costs brands agility and trust</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/delaying-agency-payments-costs-brands-agility-and-trust</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/delaying-agency-payments-costs-brands-agility-and-trust</guid><pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 04:23:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Delaying agency payments to save cash erodes trust and responsiveness, while paying promptly makes agencies faster, more creative and better able to adjust campaigns. Todd argues that marketing leaders who treat late agency payments as a harmless cost-saver are wrong. Drawing on a CPG client that switched to prompt payment, he says timely pay brings faster campaign adjustments, better creative and stronger supplier efficiency.</description></item><item><title>Relying on Google Ads alone obscures true marketing ROI</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/relying-on-google-ads-alone-obscures-true-marketing-roi</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/relying-on-google-ads-alone-obscures-true-marketing-roi</guid><pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2026 15:45:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Concentrating ad spend on one platform with opaque pricing hides underperformance, while spreading budget across channels makes incrementality and efficiency measurable. Todd argues that putting most of a budget into Google Ads creates blind spots, because unclear pricing and conversion tracking make returns hard to verify. In a retail case, social and email outperformed expectations, and diversifying channels made ROI clearer.</description></item><item><title>AI-native advertising helps reach the growing US soccer audience</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-native-advertising-helps-reach-the-growing-us-soccer-audience</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-native-advertising-helps-reach-the-growing-us-soccer-audience</guid><pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2026 15:10:05 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Traditional demographic targeting misses the nuanced preferences of soccer fans, and AI-driven personalization appears to improve engagement and incrementality when campaigns match audience interests. Todd argues that marketers relying on demographic targeting miss the preferences of America&#x27;s growing soccer audience. In a pilot study with a sports apparel brand, adding AI to media planning appeared to improve incrementality, though Todd notes results are far from perfect.</description></item><item><title>Marketers should adopt AI model exchanges for predictive work</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketers-should-adopt-ai-model-exchanges-for-predictive-work</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketers-should-adopt-ai-model-exchanges-for-predictive-work</guid><pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2026 11:42:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Marketers who route prompts across many AI models through one API can move from retrospective analysis to predictive modeling that adapts to new data. Todd argues that unified AI routing services like OpenRouter are essential rather than experimental for marketers. Using the right model for each task, instead of relying on historical data alone, should sharpen targeting and allow real-time strategy adjustments.</description></item><item><title>AI automation frees marketing teams for creative strategy</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-automation-frees-marketing-teams-for-creative-strategy</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-automation-frees-marketing-teams-for-creative-strategy</guid><pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2026 17:38:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Automating repetitive tasks like data parsing with AI frees marketing teams to focus on strategy and creativity, so sticking to old workflows out of fear holds agencies back. Todd argues that marketers who cling to familiar workflows for fear of losing control miss out. At Provalytics, automating routine data work let a smaller agency&#x27;s analysts support strategy, and its brands noticed more creative campaigns.</description></item><item><title>Static measurement models miss how AI reshapes buyer journeys</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/static-measurement-models-miss-how-ai-reshapes-buyer-journeys</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/static-measurement-models-miss-how-ai-reshapes-buyer-journeys</guid><pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2026 14:57:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Measurement models that treat past customer patterns as reliable guides will mislead strategy as AI changes how buyers find and choose brands. Todd argues that many measurement providers still rely on multiple separate models built on past behavior, which ignore AI&#x27;s effect on buyer journeys. He says near real-time AI engagement data can turn static models into dynamic insight and support retention.</description></item><item><title>Test AI advertising tools before trusting them with campaigns</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/test-ai-advertising-tools-before-trusting-them-with-campaigns</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/test-ai-advertising-tools-before-trusting-them-with-campaigns</guid><pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2026 12:56:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Marketers who adopt AI advertising tools without rigorously testing them risk missing customer shifts, so human oversight of AI outputs remains essential. Todd argues that marketers who trust AI ad tools without validating results miss changes in customer behavior. Human oversight, or a dedicated analytics platform, is still needed to interpret outputs and keep campaigns aligned with shifting customer needs.</description></item><item><title>Click-based attribution no longer fits how people buy</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/click-based-attribution-no-longer-fits-how-people-buy</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/click-based-attribution-no-longer-fits-how-people-buy</guid><pubDate>Thu, 21 May 2026 14:45:05 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Marketers relying on last-click attribution are measuring a world that no longer exists, and measurement should instead show how media exposure changes customer behavior and business outcomes. Todd argues that last-click attribution misses the impact of connected TV, podcasts, influencers and retail media, which often produce no trackable click. He says measurement should model how spend, timing, audiences and creative change behavior, rather than follow individual users through pixels.</description></item><item><title>Click-based attribution is defunding top-of-funnel marketing</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/click-based-attribution-is-defunding-top-of-funnel-marketing</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/click-based-attribution-is-defunding-top-of-funnel-marketing</guid><pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2026 13:31:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Relying only on clicks leads marketers to defund top-of-funnel activity that creates demand, so measurement needs to go beyond clickstream attribution. Todd argues that marketers who rely on clickstream attribution are misreading what drives conversions. Last-click channels get credit while top-of-funnel work is defunded, and a probability-based modeling approach that needs no cookies or clicks gives a fuller picture.</description></item><item><title>More data does not produce better decisions on its own</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/more-data-does-not-produce-better-decisions-on-its-own</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/more-data-does-not-produce-better-decisions-on-its-own</guid><pubDate>Mon, 18 May 2026 18:15:05 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Collecting more data makes meaning harder to extract, so the real advantage comes from choosing which metrics matter and ignoring the rest. Todd argues that piling up data leads to indecision and clouds the KPIs that matter. Citing Publicis&#x27;s planned LiveRamp acquisition as a sign of data&#x27;s importance, Todd says clarity, focus and action beat volume and sophisticated tooling.</description></item><item><title>AI ad tools need human strategy to deliver</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-ad-tools-need-human-strategy-to-deliver</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-ad-tools-need-human-strategy-to-deliver</guid><pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2026 16:04:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>AI ad tools alone won&#x27;t deliver results; success depends on blending them with human creativity and strategy rather than relying on the technology by itself. Todd argues that sophisticated AI ad tools are stalling because of algorithmic complexity and steep learning curves. Over-reliance on AI risks campaigns that lack human touch, so data must be paired with creativity and strategic integration.</description></item><item><title>Programmatic TV needs granular measurement, not aggregate MMM</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/programmatic-tv-needs-granular-measurement-not-aggregate-mmm</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/programmatic-tv-needs-granular-measurement-not-aggregate-mmm</guid><pubDate>Thu, 14 May 2026 20:08:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Programmatic TV&#x27;s targeting precision is wasted unless measurement covers each combination of campaign, audience, creative, publisher, format, geography and placement rather than just channel-level results. Todd argues that as TV moves into programmatic buying, marketers who rely on measurement limited to channel or platform performance will pay premiums for noise. He says effectiveness and efficiency need to be tracked at a granular level to make the targeting pay off.</description></item><item><title>Granular media data beats aggregate MMM for CTV precision targeting</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/granular-media-data-beats-aggregate-mmm-for-ctv-precision-targeting</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/granular-media-data-beats-aggregate-mmm-for-ctv-precision-targeting</guid><pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2026 16:32:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Marketing mix models that report only channel and platform totals bury the value of precision targeting, so measurement has to reach campaign, audience, creative and placement detail. Todd argues that CTV&#x27;s growth and precision targeting are wasted if marketing mix models stop at channel and platform level. Measurement needs granular detail on audiences, creatives, publishers and placements, or AI ends up optimizing on averages.</description></item><item><title>Aggregate MMM models will miss the shift to B2B CTV</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/aggregate-mmm-models-will-miss-the-shift-to-b2b-ctv</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/aggregate-mmm-models-will-miss-the-shift-to-b2b-ctv</guid><pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2026 01:15:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>B2B advertisers moving into CTV need measurement that shows results for specific combinations of campaign, audience, creative and placement, because aggregate models will miss where the return comes from. Todd argues that LinkedIn and Amazon are changing B2B advertising through CTV targeting of professionals. Aggregate marketing mix models will leave advertisers behind, so Todd favors granular measurement across campaigns, audiences, creatives, publishers, formats, geographies and placements.</description></item><item><title>Data needs a narrative to turn insights into impact</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/data-needs-a-narrative-to-turn-insights-into-impact</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/data-needs-a-narrative-to-turn-insights-into-impact</guid><pubDate>Sat, 02 May 2026 16:49:02 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Analytics only drives results when insights are framed in the audience&#x27;s own narrative, with human intuition guiding what AI finds. Todd argues that mastering data is not enough in analytics. Insights need context from the audience&#x27;s perspective to lead to action, and AI works best when paired with human intuition, advocate feedback and a feel for the unknown.</description></item><item><title>Use AI to enhance creativity, not replace it</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/use-ai-to-enhance-creativity-not-replace-it</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/use-ai-to-enhance-creativity-not-replace-it</guid><pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2026 14:08:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>AI is most useful in marketing when it supports human storytelling and intuition, because automated insights without a narrative fail to engage people. Todd argues that AI should enhance creativity rather than replace it. Automated insights lack impact without narrative, so Todd pairs AI with proprietary algorithms to build meaningful measurement strategies instead of generating more data, keeping human intuition central.</description></item><item><title>Marketing must link spend to business outcomes, not clicks</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketing-must-link-spend-to-business-outcomes-not-clicks</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketing-must-link-spend-to-business-outcomes-not-clicks</guid><pubDate>Wed, 29 Apr 2026 15:34:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Marketing spend should be linked to business outcomes rather than clicks and impressions, or it will keep being treated as overhead and cut when budgets tighten. Todd argues that CEOs who treat marketing as overhead miss its economic impact, and that analytics must move past impressions. Connecting campaign details like platforms, audiences, creative and copy to results would let marketing show its value as a growth driver.</description></item><item><title>Insight only matters when it turns into action</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/insight-only-matters-when-it-turns-into-action</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/insight-only-matters-when-it-turns-into-action</guid><pubDate>Mon, 27 Apr 2026 14:16:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Data insights create value only when they are turned into strategy, and creativity and intuition are what make that strategy produce breakthroughs. Todd argues that gathering insights is not enough if they sit idle. Data should guide marketing, but creativity and intuition turn it into strategy that drives engagement and conversion, and relying on data alone risks stagnation.</description></item><item><title>AI should generate options while humans weigh them</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-should-generate-options-while-humans-weigh-them</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-should-generate-options-while-humans-weigh-them</guid><pubDate>Mon, 27 Apr 2026 14:10:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>AI can generate options for decisions, but people still have to weigh them, and oversight must get stricter as AI use grows. Todd argues that organizations should check whether their strategies are ready before adopting AI. AI can produce options, but data scientists must weigh them, verify results rigorously, and keep human judgment central as data infrastructure and analytics frameworks adapt.</description></item><item><title>AI speeds up marketing analytics but human insight must stay</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-speeds-up-marketing-analytics-but-human-insight-must-stay</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-speeds-up-marketing-analytics-but-human-insight-must-stay</guid><pubDate>Sat, 25 Apr 2026 16:49:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>AI that handles pattern detection at speed frees data scientists to focus on insight, as long as human judgment still guides the analysis. Todd, a longtime skeptic, says GPT5.5 looks like a real step forward for marketing analytics at Provalytics because it processes large datasets quickly and frees the data science team for algorithm work. He insists human insight must still guide the narrative.</description></item><item><title>Creative-level data beats channel aggregates on TikTok</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/creative-level-data-beats-channel-aggregates-on-tiktok</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/creative-level-data-beats-channel-aggregates-on-tiktok</guid><pubDate>Thu, 23 Apr 2026 15:45:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Measuring ROAS at the individual creative level, not just channel totals, shows which sounds and challenges drive TikTok virality without losing creativity. Todd argues that TikTok analytics work best when granular, creative-level data is paired with human intuition. Relying on channel and platform aggregates can hide what makes content work, as shown by a hesitant brand the Provalytics team advised.</description></item><item><title>Marketing data is an investment, not an expense</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketing-data-is-an-investment-not-an-expense</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/marketing-data-is-an-investment-not-an-expense</guid><pubDate>Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:55:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Marketing data pays off as an investment when analytical precision is combined with human insight and empathy, rather than relying on AI alone. Todd argues that marketing data should be treated as an investment rather than a cost. Value comes from pairing analytics with creative intuition and empathy, since relying only on AI risks missing the nuances that connect with customers.</description></item><item><title>Use AI for efficiency but anchor decisions in human insight</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/use-ai-for-efficiency-but-anchor-decisions-in-human-insight</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/use-ai-for-efficiency-but-anchor-decisions-in-human-insight</guid><pubDate>Sat, 18 Apr 2026 17:10:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>AI can handle efficiency work, but human intuition, creativity and strategic foresight should anchor decisions, because imagination combined with data produces the strongest strategies. Todd argues that as AI absorbs most routine tasks, people&#x27;s value lies in intuition, creativity and strategic foresight. He says AI should be used for efficiency while decisions stay grounded in human insight, since imagination paired with data yields exceptional strategies.</description></item><item><title>Use AI to enhance human marketing strategy, not replace it</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/use-ai-to-enhance-human-marketing-strategy-not-replace-it</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/use-ai-to-enhance-human-marketing-strategy-not-replace-it</guid><pubDate>Sat, 18 Apr 2026 16:51:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Marketers should use AI and analytics to strengthen human judgment in campaign planning, because relying on algorithms alone risks losing the story behind the data. Todd points to Netflix&#x27;s 16% ad revenue increase as evidence that brands are investing in AI-driven advertising. He cautions that over-relying on algorithms sacrifices intuition, and says the real question is how marketers adopt these tools, not whether they do.</description></item><item><title>AI can inform marketing strategy but not replace human judgment</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-can-inform-marketing-strategy-but-not-replace-human-judgment</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-can-inform-marketing-strategy-but-not-replace-human-judgment</guid><pubDate>Thu, 16 Apr 2026 12:43:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Algorithms can surface patterns in marketing data, but turning those insights into strategy still depends on human empathy, intuition and interpretation. Todd uses Starbucks&#x27; AI drink predictions to ask whether algorithms can capture the subtleties of human-driven strategy. He argues that data models are approximations, and that marketers who rely only on them risk losing human connection. AI should enhance decisions, not replace them.</description></item><item><title>Meta overtaking Google signals a real shift in ad strategy</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/meta-overtaking-google-signals-a-real-shift-in-ad-strategy</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/meta-overtaking-google-signals-a-real-shift-in-ad-strategy</guid><pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2026 13:57:04 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Meta overtaking Google in digital ad revenue, as projected, signals a shift toward AI-driven targeting that marketers should plan their budgets around. Todd argues that eMarketer&#x27;s projection of Meta passing Google in ad revenue reflects a real market shift driven by AI personalization. Marketers should align their ad budgets with AI advances, and Todd&#x27;s company is retooling its platform accordingly.</description></item><item><title>More marketing data does not mean better decisions</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/more-marketing-data-does-not-mean-better-decisions</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/more-marketing-data-does-not-mean-better-decisions</guid><pubDate>Tue, 14 Apr 2026 03:42:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Impressive dashboards mean little unless the data guides decisions, so marketers should favor actionable insight over sheer volume of numbers. Todd argues that marketers are overwhelmed by data while meaningful action lags, confusing noise with value. He says dashboards must guide decisions, and that AI should help apply data in line with established marketing know-how rather than preserve comfort.</description></item><item><title>AI ad budgets risk becoming a tech trap without strategy</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-ad-budgets-risk-becoming-a-tech-trap-without-strategy</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/ai-ad-budgets-risk-becoming-a-tech-trap-without-strategy</guid><pubDate>Tue, 14 Apr 2026 03:31:03 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Shifting ad budgets into AI channels without strategic alignment is a tech trap, and fine-tuning existing platforms is often the more pragmatic use of spend. Todd argues that AI has become its own media channel, pulling budget from performance channels. With a third of ad spend already concentrated on about ten platforms, Todd warns against chasing hype and urges optimizing existing platforms and prioritizing actionable metrics.</description></item><item><title>Pair AI advances with marketing fundamentals, not hype</title><link>https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/pair-ai-advances-with-marketing-fundamentals-not-hype</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://theexpertindex.ai/experts/marketing-measurement/todd-kirk/pair-ai-advances-with-marketing-fundamentals-not-hype</guid><pubDate>Sat, 11 Apr 2026 19:42:02 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Todd Kirk</dc:creator><category>Marketing Measurement</category><description>Marketers should integrate new AI advances cautiously alongside timeless fundamentals, prioritizing strategic integration over hasty adoption of every shiny new technology. Todd questions whether excitement around TSMC&#x27;s record AI chip surge is pulling marketers away from fundamentals. Todd argues for using the surge to recalibrate, pairing new advances with established practice and favoring deliberate integration over rushed adoption.</description></item></channel></rss>
